Tuesday 17 January 2012

Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: The death toll of civilians killed today in Homs and for whom the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has records and circumstances of death has risen to 12 people. Among the dead people there is a 39-year-old woman who was killed by a sniper’s bullet in the neighbourhood of Al-Nazeheen, in Homs. 3 people were killed in random gunfire in: Al-Khaledia, Al-Bayaada and Kerm Al-Zeyton. 2 people were killed in Baba Amr by snipers’ bullets. Also a taxi driver who was abducted few days ago by Shabeeha was killed in Baba Amr. Another 2 people were killed in the city of Al-Qusair by Shabeeha’s gunfire. Also, a 16-years-old boy was killed in random gunfire in the town of Talbeesa. One person was fallen a martyr in the city of Telkalakh and another one in the town of Al-Qaryatain.

Syrian Uprising 2011 Information Centre: SUMMARY (17/01/2012): At least 32 martyrs have fallen today – including at least 6 army defectors. More than 430 Syrians have now been killed since 1st Jan. Homs and Zabadani remain under heavy attack. Quriyah and Tayanah in Dayr az-Zawr province also are also under fire. But don’t panic, 10 more Arab League observers are on their way! Meanwhile there was some real good news – the famous writer and human rights activist Najati Tayara was released. He had been detained since 12th May 2011. Be sure to check out Ghadfa and Zabadani. Syria – Tuesday 17/01/2012

Hammadi al-Sa’id, 35 years old father of 4 children from Ma’rat al-Nu’man in Idlib province. Hammadi was a leading activist in the Ma’rat al-Nu’man area since the start of the uprising. He was killed on 12/01/2012.
 Martyrs 2

IDLIB PROVINCE (17/01/2012): The video shows the bodies of 3 men, said to be deserted soldiers, who were caught and executed by security forces in the town of Ariha. A member of the Free Syrian Army is also reported killed in an ambush in southern Syria today. Meanwhile, the town of Sarmin has been shelled and a microbus travelling between Idlib and Aleppo was targeted. The regime blamed it on “terrorists”. In Jisr ash-Shughur security forces have been breaking into shops to end the strike.  Across all of Syria the number of civilian martyrs today has risen to at least 18.

UPDATE (17/01/2012): At least 13 civilian martyrs have fallen so far today, mostly in Homs where many neighbourhoods are under attack. The videos shows the shelling of buildings by the regime’s armour in Bayadah neighbourhood. In addition to the shelling and snipers, there is a shortage of food and fuel and electricity has been cut in many parts of the city. Zabadani, the besieged town in Damascus countryside, also remains under fire.

 Homs 17/01/2012

BBC: Bassma Kodmani from the exiled Syrian opposition says the UN security council should warn Syria it could face ‘military action’
 BBC News – Hardtalk – Bassma Kodmani: Syria should face ‘military action’

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL: SYRIAN STUDENT RELEASED AFTER TWO MONTHS 
Syrian student Suhaib al-Ammar was released without charge on 10 January 2012, following his arrest by Syrian Air Force Intelligence officials on 18 November 2011.

On 18 November, 22-year-old Suhaib al-Ammar was travelling from Damascus, the Syrian capital, to the nearby town of Daraya to visit his sister and niece when he was arrested. He was taken to his sister’s apartment, in what is believed to have been an attempt to extract information from his sister about her husband, a pro-reform activist.

According to a contact in Syria, Suhaib al-Ammar was held incommunicado at a military airport until the day of his release, when he was taken before a judge where he faced accusations of insulting the Syrian president and attending illegal demonstrations. He denied these accusations and the judge decided to release him without charge.

Amnesty International’s source stated that Suhaib al-Ammar said he was subjected to torture or other ill-treatment during his interrogation and that he could hear other detainees being tortured or otherwise ill-treated as well. He was reportedly held in poor conditions in an overcrowded room with more than 120 other prisoners.

Thanks to all of those who took action on behalf of Suhaib al-Ammar. No further appeals from the network are required at present.

This is the first update of UA 345/11. Further information:  http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/MDE24/080/2011/en

…
NOW! Lebanon
[local time]  22:15 US President Barack Obama decried continuing and “unacceptable” violence in Syria?, AFP reported on Tuesday.
 21:30 Al-Jazeera quoted activists as saying that 37 people were killed by security forces’ gunfire on Tuesday.
 20:58 Russia announced on Tuesday that it rejects sending Arab troops to Syria, stressing that it “will oppose” such an attempt if it “was proposed for discussion at the UN Security Council,” according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).
 20:23 The United States said Tuesday that a new Russian draft resolution at the United Nations on violence in Syria was insufficient and needed to hold President Bashar al-Assad accountable.
 19:28 Syrian dissident and tribal chief Nawaf al-Bashir warned Tuesday that the struggle against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime will be radicalized if the UN Security Council fails to act.
 18:48 Germany concurred with France Tuesday, saying that a new Russian draft resolution at the UN Security Council on the Syrian crisis was inadequate.
 18:33 British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Tuesday that a UN Security Council resolution on Syria was “long overdue,” but it was unlikely Russia would let the UN body take any serious action.
 17:18 Prominent opposition figure and rights activist Najati Tayyara, arrested last May for having criticized President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, was released on Tuesday, a rights group said.
 17:02 Tuesday’s death toll in Syria has risen to 28 people, Al-Arabiya television reported.
 15:00 Syria’s Tuesday death toll has risen to 20 people, Al-Arabiya television reported.
 14:26 Israel has serious concerns about what will happen to “huge stockpiles” of chemical and biological weapons in Syria when the Assad regime collapses, a senior military official said on Tuesday.
 14:22 France said Tuesday that a new Russian draft resolution at the UN Security Council on the Syrian crisis was inadequate.
 13:42 Syrian security forces killed 15 people in Homs, Edleb and Damascus district, Al-Arabiya reported.
 13:30 Syria rejected on Tuesday a  Qatari proposal for Arab troop deployment to the country, AFP reported.
 13:25 Eleven civilians were killed in Syria on Tuesday, including eight who died in an explosion in the northwestern province of Edleb, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.
 11:36 Syrian security forces have killed on Tuesday five people, Al-Jazeera reported.
 10:10 Iran on Tuesday denied a French allegation that it was sending weapons to its Syrian ally in violation of a UN embargo.
 10:02 Syrian security forces have been heavily shelling many neighborhoods in Homs, Al-Jazeera reported.
…

BBC: Syria rejects Qatar call for Arab military intervention

Syria’s government has firmly rejected a call from Qatar for Arab troops to be deployed in the country to end the deadly crackdown on protesters.

A foreign ministry statement said such a move would “worsen the crisis… and pave the way for foreign intervention”.

On Sunday, the emir of Qatar said “some troops should go to stop the killing”.

An Arab League observer mission tasked with verifying the implementation of a peace plan has not ended the violence, which the UN says has left 5,000 dead.

At least 18 civilians have so far been killed on Tuesday, including eight who died when a minibus was hit by an explosion in the north-western province of Idlib and eight in the central city of Homs, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Another activist group, the Local Co-ordination Committees, put the death toll at 30, including 18 in Homs and seven in Idlib province.

The state news agency, Sana, meanwhile said six soldiers had been killed in a rocket attack on a rural checkpoint near the capital, Damascus.

‘Astonished’

On Sunday, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al Thani, became the first Arab leader to propose Arab military intervention to halt the violent crackdown on dissent by Syrian security forces.

He told the US television network CBS: “For such a situation to stop the killing… some troops should go to stop the killing.”

Last year, the emir gave his full support to Nato’s intervention in Libya to protect civilians, which helped rebels overthrow Muammar Gaddafi.

There has been little suggestion from other Arab states or Western powers that they are considering military intervention in Syria, and Arab League officials insisted on Sunday that there had been no agreement.

On Tuesday, the Syrian foreign ministry said it had been “astonished” by Qatar’s suggestion, which it “absolutely rejected”.

“Syria rejects the statements of officials of Qatar on sending Arab troops to worsen the crisis… and pave the way for foreign intervention,” a statement said.

“The Syrian people… will oppose any attempt to undermine the sovereignty of Syria and the integrity of its territory.”

“It would be regrettable for Arab blood to flow on Syria’s territory to serve known [interests],” the statement added, without elaborating.

President Bashar al-Assad has blamed a “foreign conspiracy” for the 10-month uprising, and officials say “armed gangs and terrorists” have killed 2,000 security forces personnel.

The BBC’s Jonathan Head, who is in neighbouring Turkey, says the Arab League is divided over what to do, and in any case has little experience of forming a multi-national peacekeeping force.

Such a force would also need either an invitation from the Syrian government, or the approval of the UN Security Council, and neither is likely, our correspondent adds.

‘Unacceptable point’

The Arab League must also decide soon whether to withdraw its 165 monitors, whose mandate expires on Thursday, or keep them in Syria.

The organisation is expected to announce that Syria has failed to abide by the peace plan it accepted last year, which was supposed to see tanks and troops withdrawn from towns and cities, detained protesters released, access given to the media, and talks opened with the opposition.

It could also refer the matter to the UN Security Council, but until now Russia and China have prevented any action on Syria.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned on Monday that the situation in Syria had “reached an unacceptable point”.

The leader of the Free Syrian Army, a group of army defectors seeking to topple President Assad, also urged the Security Council to intervene.

“The Arab League and their monitors failed in their mission,” Col Riyad al-Asaad told the Reuters news agency from Turkey.

“For that reason we call on them to turn the issue over to the UN Security Council and we ask that the international community intervene because they are more capable of protecting Syrians at this stage than our Arab brothers,” he added.

Arab diplomats say the Syrian government is willing to extend the mandate of the observer mission and allow in more monitors, but would not allow an expansion of the mission’s scope, according to Reuters.

In a separate development, the prominent human rights activist Najati Tayyara has been released from custody, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Mr Tayyara was arrested in May after criticising the abuse of pro-reformist protesters by the government. A judge ordered his release on bail on 29 August, but he was reportedly re-arrested the same day.

…

REUTERS: Syria ready to let monitors stay, rebel seeks U.N. action

Syria is ready to let Arab monitors extend their mission beyond this week, an Arab source said on Tuesday, but a rebel army chief said they should go as they had failed to curb a crackdown on protesters seeking President Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow.

Damascus opposes broadening the scope of the Arab League observer mission, the source at the League said, but would accept a one-month extension of its mandate which expires on Thursday.

However, Riad al-Asaad, the Turkish-based commander of the rebel Free Syrian Army, called for international intervention to replace the observer team which is monitoring Syria’s implementation of a League plan to end 10 months of bloodshed.

U.N. officials say more than 5,000 people have been killed in the violence across Syria and the government says 2,000 members of its security forces have died.

The Arab League must decide whether to withdraw its 165 monitors or keep them in Syria, even though they are expected to report that Damascus has not fully implemented a peace plan agreed on November 2. Arab foreign ministers are set to discuss the team’s future on January 22.

“The outcome of the contacts that have taken place over the past week between the Arab League and Syria have affirmed that Syria will not reject the renewal of the Arab monitoring mission for another month … if the Arab foreign ministers call for this at the coming meeting,” the source said.

The Arab plan required Syria to halt the bloodshed, withdraw troops from cities, free detainees, provide access for the monitors and the media and open talks with opposition forces.

“FAILED MONITORS”

Rebel commander Asaad opposed any extension of the mandate.

“The Arab League and their monitors failed in their mission and though we respect and appreciate our Arab brothers for their efforts, we think they are incapable of improving conditions in Syria or resisting this regime,” he told Reuters.

“For that reason we call on them to turn the issue over to the U.N. Security Council and we ask that the international community intervene because they are more capable of protecting Syrians at this stage than our Arab brothers,” Asaad said.

The source said Beijing and Moscow had urged President Assad to accept an extension of the monitoring mission as a way to avert an escalation at the international level.

Syria would agree to an increase in the number of monitors, he said, but would not allow them to be given formal fact-finding duties or be allowed into “military zones” that are not included in the existing Arab peace plan.

Any change in the scope of the mission, whether to militarize it or let it investigate human rights abuses and potentially assign blame, would require a new agreement with Syria, the source said.

Qatar has proposed sending in Arab troops, a bold idea for the often sluggish League and one likely to be resisted by Arab rulers close to Assad and those worried about unrest at home.

Syria’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday it was “astonished” at Qatar’s suggestion, which it “absolutely rejected.”

AN OLD ALLY

The League could ask the U.N. Security Council to act, but until now opposition from Russia andChina has prevented the world body from even criticizing Syria, an old ally of Moscow.

Western diplomats said a Russian draft resolution handed to the council on Monday did not make clear if Moscow would accept tough language demanded by the West.

French Deputy Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal described Moscow’s latest draft as disappointing, saying Paris had proposed constructive amendments to the Russian text.

“After a month of silence a new text has just been submitted by Russia, which still falls far short of responding to the reality in Syria,” he said. “We’ve been saying this for months now: the Security Council’s silence is scandalous.”

Few Western powers favour any Libyan-style military action in Syria, which lies in the heart of the conflict-prone Middle East. Bordering Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, it is allied to Iranand the armed Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah group.

Iran condemned what it called foreign interference in the affairs of its closest Arab ally, Syria, and praised reforms President Assad has promised as “problem-solving.”

“We are fundamentally against interfering in the affairs of other countries. We think it does not solve the problems but will only make them more complicated,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a news conference.

Assad, while offering reform, has vowed to crush his opponents with an “iron fist,” but Syrians braving bullets and torture chambers appear equally determined to add him to the list of the past year’s toppled Arab leaders.

Army deserters and other rebels have taken up arms against security forces dominated by Assad’s minority Alawite sect, pushing Sunni Muslim-majority Syria closer to civil war.

ROCKETS AND TANK FIRE

Syria’s state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday that what it called terrorists had fired rockets, killing an officer and five of his men at a rural checkpoint near Damascus. Seven others were wounded in the incident, a day after gunmen assassinated a brigadier general near the capital.

Eight people were killed when a bomb hit a minibus on the Aleppo-Idlib road, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

In Homs, tank fire crashed into the Khalidiya district after a night rally against Assad there, activists said. YouTube footage showed a crowd dancing at the rally and waving the old Syrian flag used before the Baath Party seized power in 1963.

The British-based Observatory said eight people were killed in violence in Homs, a flashpoint city of one million racked by unrest, crackdowns and Sunni-Alawite sectarian killings.

Activists also reported fighting between rebels and troops trying to edge into Khalidiya, a neighborhood that is home to Sunni tribesmen and lies next to the Alawite district of Nozha.

Tanks were firing sporadically at the rebel-held town of Zabadani, near the Lebanese border, which has been under attack since Friday, activists said. They added that several soldiers who had tried to defect to the opposition had been killed.

Syrian forces shot dead a man at a roadblock in the restive Damascus suburb of Qatana, they said, and an activist was killed by sniper fire in the northwestern town of Khan Sheikhoun.

The United States, the European Union, Turkey and the Arab League have announced sanctions against Syria, but while these have hurt its economy, they have yet to prompt Assad to change course. Opposition to sanctions from some of Syria’s trading partners, notably Lebanon and Iraq, also dilutes their impact.

Security Council members have been divided for months over the uprising against Assad, with Western countries pushing for strong condemnation of the government’s bloody crackdown but Russia seeking to shield Damascus.

In October, Russia and China vetoed a European-drafted resolution that threatened possible sanctions. Russia presented its own draft on December 15 and Western countries agreed to discuss and negotiate it, but there has been little progress since then.

…

GUARDIAN: Ian Black - Syria: beyond the wall of fear, a state in slow-motion collapse

Despite the superficial calm in Damascus, everyone knows change is coming. The only question is, how much will it cost?

Sipping tea in a smoky Damascus cafe, Adnan and his wife, Rima, look ordinary enough: an unobtrusive, thirtysomething couple winding down at the end of the working day in one of the tensest cities in the world.

But like much else in the Syrian capital, they are not what they first seem: normally, he is a software engineer and she a lawyer; now, they are underground activists helping organise the uprising against PresidentBashar al-Assad.

It is dangerous work. Over the past 10 months, thousands of Syrians have been killed – perhaps twice the 5,000 figure given by the UN – as Assad has pursued a ruthless crackdown that shows no sign of ending. But his opponents are equally determined to carry on.

Adnan and Rima are unable to work or contact their families. They have false identities. Adnan changes his appearance regularly. He has just shaved off his beard. It clearly works: a friend at a nearby table fails to recognise him.

Most of their friends are on the run from the mukhabarat secret police. “It used to be scary but we’ve got used to it,” said Adnan. “The revolution destroyed the wall of fear. At school, we were taught to love the president – Hafez – first. And it didn’t get any better when Bashar took over. Now, everything has changed. Assad’s picture is defaced everywhere and we are certain that at some point we will topple the regime.”

On the face of it, Damascus is calm. The bloodiest frontlines of the revolution may be in Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deraa, but the appearance of normality in the capital is deceptive. Intrigue, fear and anger are just below the surface.

“Damascus is crucial to the survival of the Assad regime,” a leading opposition figure told the Guardian. “They will never allow a Tahrir Square here. If Damascus falls, it’s all over.”

Large protests organised by the tansiqiyat, local co-ordination committees, are held almost nightly in many suburbs, and always on Fridays. Even in the centre, daytime “flash” demonstrations last for a few minutes and disappear before they are pounced on by security forces, the worst of whom are shabiha louts in army trousers and leather jackets who loiter at junctions and squares.

The demonstrators are ingenious: in one case, volunteer drivers created traffic jams all around the old Hijaz railway station to create a space in which a brief but eyecatching protest could be held.

Creativity and secrecy are crucial. On the first day of Ramadan, loudspeakers concealed in the busy shopping area of Arnous Square blared out the stirring song “Irhal ya Bashar” (“Leave, Bashar”), written by Ibrahim Qashoush, who was murdered in July after performing in Hama. His killers cut his throat and carved out his vocal chords.

“At first, people were frightened,” said one Damascus resident who had heard the song. But when it was played for a second time, they relaxed. “By the third time, they were laughing,” he said.

The speakers were positioned on a roof and the area around them was smeared with oil to make it harder to silence them.

The tactics are effective but risky: one activist accidentally started playing a tape of the song in a taxi but the driver turned out to be a mukhabarat agent, who handed him in. Jawad, a computer scientist involved in one of these groups, was held for two months and beaten repeatedly to try to make him betray the names of his friends.

Other nonviolent acts have been stunningly symbolic: in August blood-red dye was poured into the fountain outside the central bank in Saba’a Bahrat Square, the scene of raucous pro-Assad rallies. Black-ribboned candles have been distributed to commemorate Ghayath Matar, famous for handing out roses to soldiers, who was tortured and killed last September.

“People are taking risks here,” said Salma, a human rights worker. “But in Idlib and Homs, it’s a matter of life and death; that’s not true in Damascus.”

Still, some cannot quite believe what they are daring to do. “Look at us,” laughed Bassam, a manufacturer in his 20s. “Using false names and driving around to avoid police checkpoints. The first time I went to a demonstration, it was frightening. Now it’s exhilarating.”

Yet no one thinks the revolution will have a happy end any time soon. Last week’s speech by Assad was seen as a declaration of war, designed to rally his supporters. In the live broadcast on state TV, the crowd looked enormous; in fact, a leaked unofficial shot suggested there were probably no more than a few thousand people in Umayyad Square.

Damascus is surrounded by the army’s 4th division, commanded by the president’s brother Maher. Government buildings are protected by anti-blast barriers. Roads near the presidential palace and defence ministry are closed. At the state security HQ, in Kafr Sousseh, machinegun-toting guards look out from sandbagged emplacements.

It was there, two days before a cheerless Christmas, that twin suicide bombings killed 44 people and were blamed (20 minutes after the blasts) on al-Qaida – a reminder of the unrelenting official narrative that Syria faces only “armed terrorist gangs”, not the mass popular protests that have become an emblematic event of the Arab spring.

On 6 January, terrorists struck again. In nearby al-Midan, an opposition stronghold, there was what looked, at least at first glance, like another suicide attack, which reportedly killed 26 people. But key details remain confused.

Locals spoke of the area being mysteriously cordoned off by police the night before. Many noted the remarkably swift response by the Syrian media and emergency services. And a rapidly assembled crowd of demonstrators, who were not from the neighbourhood, chanted pro-Assad slogans for journalists bussed in by the ministry of information. Suspicions that the event was somehow staged look reasonable, rather than the product of a conspiracy theory.

Abu Muhammad, a chatty Sunni taxi driver, had no doubt about it. “It was pure theatre, all fabricated,” he said. “The idea is to frighten people in Damascus.” Nader, a shopkeeper, was even blunter: “The government knows Syrians don’t believe them. But they count on people being too afraid to break the silence.”

Hassan Abdel-Azim, leader of the opposition National Co-ordination Committee, who is often criticised for being too close to the regime, said he too had “serious doubts” about the official version.

On 11 January, the killing of the French TV correspondent Gilles Jacquier by mortar fire during a government-escorted trip to Homs left more troubling questions unanswered. Was it a warning message to the international media? What is extraordinary about all these incidents is the assumption of so many Syrians that the regime would act with such murderous duplicity.

“No one has any illusions,” said another anti-Assad figure. “People think [the regime] is capable of anything. There are no red lines.”

The president’s supporters see things very differently. The regime’s grand conspiracy narrative, in which the US, the west, Israel and reactionary Arab “agents”, led by Qatar, plot against Syria, is pumped out daily by state media. Its most aggressive exponent is Addounia TV, a satellite channel owned by the wealthy brother-in-law of Maher al-Assad. Above all Addounia loathes the broadcaster al-Jazeera, the Qatari-owned cheerleader for the Arab revolutions, which it has accused of staging fake demonstrations in studio mock-ups of Syrian cities. In his speech the president referred to 60 TV channels as part of this vast “plot”.

Big lies seem to work. “The emir of Qatar is a Jew, worse than the Jews,” an Alawite taxi driver raged. “There are no demonstrations in Syria, or only by people who have been paid, and the terrorist gangs.” No wonder so many Syrians berate the few foreign journalists who are allowed into the country and urge them to “tell the truth like it really is”.

Regime loyalists who speak to the international media claim to support political reform and dialogue with the peaceful opposition: these are people like the Assad adviser Buthaina Shaaban and Jihad Makdissi, director of information at the foreign ministry, who engages in Twitter debates with supporters of the uprising. Overthrowing the president, warns Makdissi, “will open a Pandora’s box”.

But Syria’s powerful security chiefs, who are unavailable for briefings or interviews, emphasise the grave danger posed by Salafi extremists or al-Qaida – the same “foreign fighters” the mukhabarat used to help cross into Iraq to fight the Americans. Stomach-churning pictures showing decapitated bodies or corpses with their eyes gouged out are produced as evidence of the savagery of these terrorists. Opposition supporters do not claim such horrors are faked but insist the regime bears overwhelming responsibility for the current violence.

“For the Syrian security people, the solution now is to kill until it’s all over and wait until there is some change in the position of the west,” said a well-connected but despairing businessman.

Assad supporters also accuse the opposition of naivety and of forgetting the early 1980s, when a wave of assassinations and bombings by the Muslim Brotherhood culminated in the Hama uprising, in which government forces killed at least 20,000 people. But that was 30 years ago: such a draconian “security solution” would be hard to repeat in the age of YouTube – and unlikely to end the uprising.

Sectarianism is also rearing its ugly head, with the opposition blaming the regime for fomenting tensions between Alawites, who dominate the security forces, and the Sunni majority.

In the current climate, it is easily done. Mudar, a young Alawite with close establishment links, tells of a soldier cousin who was killed and mutilated, and then clicks on a high-quality video clip of a bushy-bearded man sawing off the head of his screaming victim.

In an area near the Umayyad mosque, an Alawite woman visiting a Sunni friend said she dare not take a taxi home because a Sunni driver might kidnap her and sell her on to be killed.

Rumblings of concern are audible. Last spring, a group of influential Alawites urged Assad to apologise for the repression and pursue genuine rather than cosmetic reforms. “Alawites feel their fate is connected to the Assads,” warned a veteran opposition leader, “and that is very dangerous.”

Pressure is clearly mounting. Alawite businessmen are reported to have been bribing the mukhabarat to avoid releasing their employees to attend pro-regime rallies. Fadwa Suleiman, an Alawite actress, won huge admiration when she came out in support of the uprising, but she was ostracised and denounced on TV by her brother.

Christians, traditionally loyalists, are worried, too, especially about the Salafi element of the uprising, and the churches keenly demonstrate public support for Assad. To some, though, it seemed a very mixed blessing when Daoud Rajha, a Greek Orthodox Christian, was appointed army chief of staff, perhaps in an attempt to guarantee the community’s support.

Another sign of Syria’s deepening crisis is that the state is no longer functioning properly. It is “collapsing in slow motion”, in the words of one expert. Security chiefs are concerned about bribes being demanded to release detainees. Half the weapons acquired by rebels are estimated to have been sold by army personnel while customs agents look the other way as shipments come in from Lebanon. Rumours persist of different branches of the secret police shooting at each other on clandestine operations. And officials are said to have been destroying documents recording off-the-book payments authorised by a phone call from the president’s palace.

Syria’s economic plight has also deepened in the last few weeks. Power cuts for several hours a day are now routine. Shops in the priciest streets of Damascus depend on generators on the pavement. Petrol is in short supply, in part because of massive use by the security forces, and the prices of heating and cooking oil have risen steeply.

This joke illustrates the impact: Abu Fulan – everyman – buys a chicken for dinner. He asks his wife to roast it but she says, ‘Sorry, there’s no gas’.Maaleish (never mind), he replies: let’s pluck it and put it in the microwave. ‘Sorry,’ his wife answers, ‘there’s no electricity either.’ At this point, the chicken miraculously comes to life and squawks: Allah, Souriya, Bashar, wa bas! (“and that’s all you need!”)

The punchline is borrowed from Libya, where the propaganda line was that the thing people needed apart from God and country was Muammar Gaddafi – until his overthrow and murder. It can hardly be a good omen for Assad.

The president was ridiculed for praising the quality of the country’s olive oil and wheat – an allusion to self-reliance. Yet even if ordinary people grumble and make do, the macroeconomic outlook is bleak. Foreign investment and tourism have collapsed. Hotels are empty. US sanctions block most international financial transactions. The EU has stopped oil purchases. Credit cards can no longer be used. And the value of the Syrian pound has been falling steeply.

The regime understands the dangers but its room for manoeuvre is diminishing: when it banned luxury imports, in November, Sunni businessmen protested. The measure was rescinded a few days later.

It is hardly surprising, then, that all this is taking its toll: doctors report an increase in heart attacks, high blood pressure and other stress-related symptoms. Pharmacists are doing a brisk trade in anti-depressants. Two years ago the government introduced a smoking ban, but government offices, cafes and restaurants are still wreathed in clouds of smoke. People are also drinking more.”Doctors tell you to go and watch some silly Egyptian films – anything except the news,” a friend laughed.

Many now have first-hand experience of the apparatus of state repression, and describe details of underground cells, beatings and torture. It is common knowledge that Iranian security advisers are on hand with their sinister expertise in communications monitoring and riot policing. Damascus feels, and looks, like Tehran in 2009 during protests over the rigging of the presidential election.

“The people who are being arrested now don’t have Facebook pages,” the economist Raja Abdel-Karim said wryly. “They don’t care about actors, journalists and writers. The effect of the footage of the demonstrations and the killings is far greater than any quote someone like me can come up with.”

Abu Ahmad, a middle-aged man who was sacked from his government job, wept as he described being at a funeral in Midan, scene of the last dubious suicide bombing, with his wife and children when the shabiha started shooting.

State media reports only on martyrs among security personnel or regime supporters. Bodies are returned to families bearing unmistakable signs of torture.

“Perhaps the worst human rights violation committed by the regime against the Syrian people is no time to mourn each martyr, no time to grieve,” tweeted the blogger Razan Ghazzawi.

Elements of the anti-Assad opposition are uncomfortable with the “militarisation” of what began as a peaceful uprising inspired by the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The expectation is that violence will intensify as the Free Syrian Army, composed largely of defectors, continues to grow. “If you shoot at people for months, you shouldn’t be surprised when they start shooting back,” observed one western diplomat.

Overall, Syria’s divisions appear to be deepening. “For the last 10 months, millions of people have occupied the middle ground,” says Badr, a lecturer. “But Assad is leaving us with no choice.”

Another joke makes the point well: citizens are being told they must no longer wear grey clothes – only black or white are allowed.

No one can accurately predict how long the uprising will continue. On the opposition side, optimism of the will is tempered by a realisation that in the short term the balance of forces is not in their favour and is unlikely to change quickly – barring a Libyan-style foreign military intervention, which few want or expect. “Our tomorrow is in our hands,” tweeted one supporter of the revolution, “or we will have no tomorrow.”

Louay Hussein, an independent, Alawite writer and intellectual, said only a political solution could bring down the regime. “The crisis is in deadlock,” he argued. “All the signs are that we are heading for open-ended civil war. Assad still has quite a lot of support. It’s not just a question of repression.”

The economist Abdel-Karim takes the long view. “I have no doubt the regime will be toppled. The problem is that the longer it takes, the more powerful the Islamists will become. Those who advocate violence will gain ground. It’s a question of time and cost: time is getting shorter but the price is getting higher.”

Mouna Ghanem, of the Syrian State-Building Movement, one of very few independent nongovernmental organisations, agrees fully with this gloomy analysis. “We are happy that there is change,” she says. “We thought change would never come to Syria. But we fear what is it going to cost.”

Syria: 20 miles from Damascus, an oasis of fragile freedom

Zabadani has effectively been liberated for a month, thanks to the Free Syrian Army. But it’s a liberty under constant siege

In the centre of Zabadani, in the little square by the mosque, stands what at first glance looks like a Christmas tree – a spindly plastic evergreen draped in blue fairy lights. But instead of tinsel and baubles it is decorated with photographs and pieces of cardboard bearing the names of the martyrs of the Syrian uprising. Locals call it the Freedom Tree.

It is here, after prayers, that hundreds of residents gather every evening to march through the town, waving placards and chanting slogans against President Bashar al-Assad. They do so under the watchful eyes of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), their only defence against the might of an angry government that is fighting for its survival.

“We don’t want Bashar or [his brother] Maher or their gang,” they shouted in unison on a cold and starry night last week, clapping their hands above their heads – partly, some laughed, just to keep warm. “The people want the fall of the regime.”

Parents and children gathered on the square to pose for the cameras they see as a lifeline to the outside world. Women stood to one side at first but joined the march from the rear. “The Free Army is protecting us against Assad’s gangs,” read a poster one little boy was holding up. “YouTube is the most important weapon of our revolution,” said Amjad al-Khousi, a student. “People believe that being photographed will protect them.”

Zabadani is just 20 miles north-west of Damascus, but it could be on another planet. For nearly a month the mainly Sunni town of 40,000 has effectively been liberated territory, though it is a fragile liberty that is under constant siege. Last Friday government troops launched a large-scale assault backed up by artillery and up to 50 tanks. It is unlikely to be the last.Shelling was reported again on Tuesday. Nearby Madaya was also under attack, a thick pall of smoke hanging over it. Water and electricity have been cut off. Many residents have fled.

“Zabadani is 90% free and the other 10% is held by the strongest army in the Middle East,” quipped teacher Ali Abdelrahman, taking part in a mourning ceremony for a man who had been killed two days earlier – the town’s 14th fatality since the uprising began. “The more martyrs there are, the stronger we become and the more volunteers we get,” he grinned.

Ali Mustafa Burqan was hit by a sniper as he returned home from shopping with his wife on 8 January. Bloodstains still mark the spot where he lay dying, at a roundabout on a road out of town. Video clips of the corpse show the right side of his head shot away. Muhammad, his teenage son, is red-eyed and silent as mourners comfort him. “Sometimes,” said an older man, “they have orders to shoot at anything that moves.”

Zabadani is a picturesque place. Its concrete and stone houses climb up the steep hillsides and there are stunning views of the snow-dusted mountains near the border with Lebanon. Like nearby Bloudan, a famous resort, it is – or used to be – popular with Gulf Arabs during the summer months. It will be some time before it is a holiday destination again.

Its defenders appear well organised. Anti-Assad activists operating underground in Damascus are often students or professionals. But a key member of the local co-ordination committee here is Abu Nidal, a leathery-faced middle-aged builder who led the first demonstration last March. Other members are farmers and labourers. Another is a barber. All are wanted by the mukhabarat secret police – and are proud of it.

Huddled around the stove drinking coffee in one of their homes after the march, talk turned to the Arab League monitors, whose visit on Sunday brought a brief pause in army operations. The observer’s chief, the Sudanese general Muhammad al-Dabi, is himself “a war criminal”, someone complained.

The Assad regime dismisses the FSA as an “armed terrorist gang”. But it is clear that these ragtag fighters are keeping Zabadani relatively safe. On previous raids, regime forces drove right into the centre of town with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and truckloads of shabiha thugs.

“It’s unbelievable how they treat us,” said Ahmed, an engineering student turned film-maker who now documents the uprising. “Even the Israelis use things like rubber bullets and teargas against the Palestinians. Not here.”

Exact numbers and dispositions are secret, but there are said to be 70 FSA men around town and in the surrounding fields and orchards. Increasingly, though, they are out in the open, even manning checkpoints. Many are defectors from the army and mukhabarat, some are local volunteers. Elsewhere in Syria, FSA men have been accused of behaving as brutally as their enemies.

In normal times, Sami, a tough-looking bearded man wearing jeans and a baseball cap, is a stonemason. Now he carries a Russian automatic rifle with a sniper sight. “I got it for $4,000 by selling some land,” he explained laconically as his four-wheel drive – no numberplates – cruised along a dirt road to avoid the nearest army checkpoint.

Film shot in the town at the weekend and distributed on the internet showed a masked FSA fighter stopping his car to paint over pro-government graffiti on a wall. He shakes his can of white paint and changes a slogan supporting the president to read “Bashar is a donkey”.

“The Free Syrian Army in Zabadani are not terrorists,” insisted Mahmoud, an activist whose family home near the Freedom Tree was hit by army shellfire last week. “They are peaceful people who are trying to protect our own kids and women and ourselves. It is a reaction to a very brutal action by the Assad regime.”

Syria:

The leader of the Free Syrian Army has called on the Arab League to refer Syria to the UN security council. Speaking to Reuters, Colonel Riad al-Asaad said: “We call on them to turn the issue over to the UN security council and we ask that the international community intervene because they are more capable of protecting Syrians at this stage than our Arab brothers.”

• Syria’s foreign ministry has said it “categorically rejects” the idea of Arab League troops being sent into the country, the state news agency reports. The foreign ministry was quoted as saying it is “surprised by the statements of Qatari officials which call for sending Arab forces to it [Syria], and it categorically rejects such calls which would aggravate the situation, hinder the joint Arab work and open the door wide for the foreign interference in Syria’s affairs”.

• Fighting between defected soldiers and the regular Syrian army appears to be getting closer to Damascus. The state news agency blamed terrorists for the killing of six soldiers including a brigadier general six miles south-west of the capital. Activists claim the Free Syrian Army is holding off a government assault in Zabadani north west of Damascus. Around 500 military defectors are protecting Deir Ezzor in the east as well, a political activist from one of the province’s major tribes told the National.

• UN officials are trying reword a new draft resolution on Syria put forward by Russia which has consistently blocked UN attempts to condemn the Assad regime. One diplomat dismised the resolution as “playing for time”. The new draft is heading for “diplomatic limbo” according to the Russian press agency RIA Novosti.

• A dispute has broken out over control of the British based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, one of the main sources of information on the crackdown in Syria. Two rival websites have been set up claiming to represent the true voice of the Observatory. Prominent Syria experts have given their backing to human rights campaigner Rami Abdulrahman whose organisation suggested the Syrian regime and its supporters were behind the rival website.